Diphtheria Disease Transmission Dynamics In Low Vaccine Coverage Setting

  • O. S. Johnson Federal University Lokoja, Department of Mathematics, Nigeria.
  • H. O. Edogbanya Federal University Lokoja, Department of Mathematics, Nigeria.
  • A. Wakili Adamawa State University, Department of Mathematics, Nigeria.
  • A. T. John Kogi State Polytechnic, Department of Statistics, Nigeria.
Keywords: Gronwalls-Bellman inequality, Integrating factor, Routh-Hurwitz, Gaussian Elimination

Abstract

Diphtheria is a severely infectious respiratory disease which transmits through droplets and preventable by periodic vaccine programs. In this paper, A six (6) Compartmental model (S, E, IA, IS, Q, R) is presented to undersee the behaviour of diphtheria disease transmission within a group of people with low or zero vaccine coverage and immunity gaps. This research explores epidemiology and mathematically well-posed model. The reproduction number was analysed using the Next Generation Matrix, we underscored that a single infected individual can trigger an outbreak, and further investigation indicates that the disease will subside if the reproduction number (R0) is less than 1, and vice versa if R0 exceeds 1. The model captures disease mitigating strategies like maternally derived immunity, vaccination, Quarantine, and asymptomatic carriers to assess how contagious the disease is and what interventions might be most effective. To validate theoretical model predictions, we conducted numerical simulations using MATLAB 2021a software. Relevant and informative model Simulations areĀ  displayed in the full text.

Published
2024-04-24
How to Cite
Johnson, O. S., Edogbanya, H. O., Wakili, A., & John, A. T. (2024). Diphtheria Disease Transmission Dynamics In Low Vaccine Coverage Setting. International Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Optimization: Theory and Applications, 10(2), 79 - 106. Retrieved from http://ijmso.unilag.edu.ng/article/view/2085
Section
Articles