Diphtheria Disease Transmission Dynamics In Low Vaccine Coverage Setting

Abstract

Diphtheria is a severely infectious respiratory disease which transmits through droplets and preventable by periodic vaccine programs. In this paper, A six (6) Compartmental model (S, E, IA, IS, Q, R) is presented to undersee the behaviour of diphtheria disease transmission within a group of people with low or zero vaccine coverage and immunity gaps. This research explores epidemiology and mathematically well-posed model. The reproduction number was analysed using the Next Generation Matrix, we underscored that a single infected individual can trigger an outbreak, and further investigation indicates that the disease will subside if the reproduction number (R0) is less than 1, and vice versa if R0 exceeds 1. The model captures disease mitigating strategies like maternally derived immunity, vaccination, Quarantine, and asymptomatic carriers to assess how contagious the disease is and what interventions might be most effective. To validate theoretical model predictions, we conducted numerical simulations using MATLAB 2021a software. Relevant and informative model Simulations are  displayed in the full text.